Recovery week and 100K Goals

So, here's how the days since last week's 50K have gone:

• Monday - No running today, also day off from work, had a massage in the morning, then did errands and hung out at home, then went to Jenny's Boot Camp in the evening (oh, wait a second, that included a mile of running!!).
• Tuesday - Started out to run and then soon realized it was a bad idea.  Started to get back in bed, then Jenny suggested a walk might be good for me, so I went for a walk - 2.2 miles, and it helped
• Wednesday - 6 miles at 8:49 pace First run , then bootcamp in the evening where I couldn't believe I was doing squat jumps with no problems
• Thursday -  7.2 miles at 7:39 pace, ran with the Striders, although mostly by myself, ran the first mile with Mike,  fastest run for the week
• Friday - 6.2 miles at 9:02 pace - Easy neighborhood run -
• Saturday - 16 miles at 8:35 pace - Long run into Starkey park and back - .  Did not plan who I was going to run with but met up with some people starting out at 5:30 (Bob, Rachel, Kim, and Rebecca), then ran into Eudair, ran with her 2 miles before turning back for home.
• Sunday - 5.4 miles at 8:43 pace, Easy run by myself,  along the grassy area next to Trinity Blvd.
• Monday - day off from running, but did a 1.7 mile walk in the morning and boot camp in the evening

 So, about 42 miles of running for the week.  A very good week coming off of the 50K as well as having also done 2 boot camps.  Usually, a typical mileage week after running a marathon might be 5-10 miles.  It must be a combination of having been a slower pace than a marathon, the softer surface, as well as using a bigger variety of muscles to navigate the trail terrain.  It's also the feeling that I'm not done yet until the big race is over with.  Although, actually, I was quite prepared to take time off if I needed it when I made the decision to put some race effort into the 50K race and not just try and run it as a training run.

Now, I'm starting to feel like I'm in the homestretch of training.  I have one more big, long run coming up this weekend , 25 miles.  Eudair has offered to run it with me, so the company will be very nice.  This weekend will also be my last time having to do a run the day after a long run.  Then the next few weeks will be cutting back in mileage for the taper.

As races get longer, the science of trying to predict the finish time based on shorter distance race times becomes less and less precise and fades out of the realm of science and into an art.  I've been talking to whomever might have the answer and reading whatever I can find on the subject.  Here are some numbers I came up with.  Also, to start with I listed some finish times along with their paces to put things into perspective.


100K Finish Times/Paces:

Time      Pace
 9:00     8:41
10:00     9:39
10:30    10:08
11:00    10:37
11:30    11:06
12:00    11:35
12:30    12:04
13:00    12:33


Predictors:

1. 2.8 times marathon
     Last marathon (Boston): 3:27  (not my best time, but reasonable)
                             *2.8
                             -----
                             9:39

2. 2.8 times marathon
     Better marathon (Deseret): 3:11  (close to my PR of 3:06)
                                              *2.8
                                             -----
                                              9:17

3. Based on this website (Running for Fitness)

    50Km race at 4:34:30 time for 45 year old male = 10:00:24 predicted time.


4. Number I've been spouting off to people about what I think I can do:
    
     "About 12 hours would be nice"

5. Time needed to qualify for Western States 100 lottery -

      Under 14 hours



So, the problem/dilemma is a pacing strategy.  Do I do run/walk?  Should I just go out "easy" and run by feel (that worked for the 50K, not sure how well it translates).  If I go out too fast I could "blow up" somewhere between 31 and 62 miles and end up walking a lot.  If I go too slow, I might end up with too much time on my feet and tire myself out that way.

It's a long, long way to go.  I won't know the real answer until I just go ahead and do it!!